I was browsing Quantpedia and came across an investment strategy called Asset Class Trend Following, originally credited to Meb Faber. The strategy is very simple so I decided to run a couple of quick backtests and see if I could find anything interesting. Asset Class Trend Following Rules The rules are straightforward… “Using an investment […]
Investing
Should You Trade This Earnings Pullback Strategy?
I’ve written a few articles lately that look at the use of valuation metrics on investing strategies. Those articles prompted a reader to ask if I could test a strategy called the EV/EBITDA pullback. The idea behind this strategy is to buy a stock when the EV/EBITDA ratio deviates 30% or more below the historical […]
Is Value Investing Dead? Dissecting The Value Investing Narrative
I don’t know about you but I keep hearing the same story across financial media. Apparently, value investing is no longer relevant. Both the Economist and Washington Post had articles out this week proclaiming that value investing was on its last legs. To the Post’s credit, they did suggest the tide could be changing but […]
How To Screen For Stocks With Norgate Data
Long time readers know that I use Norgate Data for most of my backtesting. The data is clean, reliable and links easily with my backtesting software Amibroker. Norgate Data also carries a long list of fundamental data points. The data is not historical but it can be used to set up some very powerful stock screens. […]
Do Stocks Have A Floor?
Coronavirus and election concerns have really spooked the market lately with the S&P 500 down -6% on the week. There are more than a couple of reasons for this weakness. Cases of coronavirus are ramping up and there appears to be little cohesion or plan to tackle the escalating number of cases. The US election […]
What Trading Signals Work Best For Long-Term Investors?
Simple technical analysis is of limited use to long-term investors. Momentum can last for a long time but it doesn’t have much predictive ability on a five or ten year time horizon. Likewise, indicators like moving averages or RSI are best suited for shorter-term trading. With that said, you don’t know until you test. So in […]
Is The Biden Trade Priced In?
It’s not long to go until the US election and Joe Biden is leading the polls. The prominent 538 blog puts Biden’s chances at around 85%, The Economist has Biden at 90% and betting odds suggest a figure around 68%. As we move closer to the election, and with some votes already been cast, it does […]
How Do Stocks Perform After Stock Splits?
There has been a lot of discussion recently regarding the impact of stock splits. With two of the biggest names (Apple and Tesla) announcing splits you might be wondering about their significance. Especially since both stocks have already run up a huge amount since March. In theory, a stock split does nothing to change the […]
Q2 Portfolio Update For ZTM
Let’s do a quick update for the ZTM portfolio. If you’ll remember, this is a portfolio I started back in February 2019 to show that anyone can go from zero to a million dollars in the stock market. The idea is to invest a small amount each month into one or two quality stocks. I […]
Should You Invest In Dividend Aristocrats?
Dividend Aristocrats are stocks from the S&P 500 that have managed to increase their dividends for 25 consecutive years or more. They are typically large, blue-chip companies with a market cap of at least $3 billion. One example of a Dividend Aristocrat is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) which has 57 years of consecutive dividend increases. […]
The Problem With PE Ratios
One of the biggest mistakes I see new investors make is their use of the PE ratio. The ubiquitous P/E ratio is typically the first metric investors learn on their journey towards financial freedom. But the P/E ratio has some significant drawbacks that you should be aware of. 1. Price is not a good measure […]
Q1 Portfolio Update For ZTM
In February of last year I started a project called Zero To One Million. The goal was to show that anyone can go from zero to one million dollars by investing a regular amount into one or two quality stocks each month. It was also to prove that stock picking is possible and you don’t […]
Will The S&P 500 Retest Its Low?
March 2020 saw one of the quickest bear markets in history as coronavirus shook the world and the S&P 500 dropped 34% in about five weeks. Since then, the market has reversed and rallied about 24% from its low meaning it’s now down only 19% from the February peak. The market is now trading at […]
When To Buy The Coronavirus Sell-Off
The fallout from the coronavirus has been rapid. The last few weeks have seen huge levels of volatility and the S&P 500 has dropped around 29% from it’s February peak. If you have read any of my previous updates you will know that I have been waiting for an opportunity like this for some time. […]
Performance Of Our Trading Systems In 2019
One of the main reasons why I started Marwood Research is so I have a place to store all of my trading systems. Uploading them online means I can now look back and see how they have performed since they were published. Being able to evaluate the systems on new, unseen data is really important […]
