I’m always on the lookout for interesting ways to time the market. Using a market timing model can help to avoid painful bear markets and indicate when is a good time to buy stocks. Recently, I was looking at some of the strategies on Allocate Smartly and came across one called Growth Trend Timing. Growth […]
Investing
4 Momentum Strategies Put To The Test
Momentum investing is a successful method practiced by many investors around the world. In the past, authors have mainly focused on price momentum with a lookback period of around 12 months. More recently, authors have been including fundamental factors into their analysis. Factors such as earnings, revenue and profit margins. For example, this paper called […]
Is This The Greatest Bubble Of All Time?
There’s been a lot of talk lately as to whether the stock market in 2021 is in a bubble. If you look at Google Trends data you can see that search traffic for the term ‘stock market bubble’ hit an all-time high in January of this year: Search data may have deflated since that January […]
Semrush Looks Like A Winner
Semrush (SEMR) is a SaaS business directed at online marketers which IPO’d on March 25th 2021. The company boasts annual recurring revenues of $144 million with 76% gross margins and a 50% revenue growth rate measured between December 2016 to December 2020. The Semrush IPO was not particularly well received as underwriters hoped for a […]
Do Growth Stocks Make More Money?
I came across the following statement on social media that is attributed to the British economist John Kay: It’s a myth that profits are higher in fast growing industries. – John Kay This is quite an interesting comment. The past decade or so has seen a shift from value stocks into growth. I would argue […]
Genius Sports Looks Like A Good Bet (DMYD Stock)
Ever since I started this website I’ve been focused on systematic trading. I’ve talked about how to build and backtest quantitative trading strategies and its advantages. I’ve also said that I like to combine quantitative analysis with fundamentals and I have had some success doing so. Going forward, I’d love to do more deeper research […]
Sentiment Analysis For Trading – Does It Work?
The last few months we have seen a surge in traders looking at forums such as Wall Street Bets trying to identify meme stocks and the next GameStop. This type of trading could be classed as sentiment analysis trading. Investors attempt to make money in stocks by assessing what other investors are talking about. Sentiment […]
How To Invest With Intelligent Machines – Lessons From Garry Kasparov
I’ve been reading the book Deep Thinking by Garry Kasparov. Kasparov is one of the greatest chess players of all time. He ranked number one from 1984 until his retirement in 2005, obtaining a peak rating of 2851. Kasparov is also remembered as the first world champion to lose a match against a computer, IBM’s […]
Trend Following With ETFs and Large Cap Stocks
I was browsing Quantpedia and came across an investment strategy called Asset Class Trend Following, originally credited to Meb Faber. The strategy is very simple so I decided to run a couple of quick backtests and see if I could find anything interesting. Asset Class Trend Following Rules The rules are straightforward… “Using an investment […]
Should You Trade This Earnings Pullback Strategy?
I’ve written a few articles lately that look at the use of valuation metrics on investing strategies. Those articles prompted a reader to ask if I could test a strategy called the EV/EBITDA pullback. The idea behind this strategy is to buy a stock when the EV/EBITDA ratio deviates 30% or more below the historical […]
Is Value Investing Dead? Warren Buffett Doesn’t Think So
I don’t know about you but I keep hearing the same story across financial media. Apparently, value investing is no longer relevant. Both the Economist and Washington Post had articles out this week proclaiming that value investing was on its last legs. So is value investing dead or is it simply in hibernation? To the […]
How To Screen For Stocks With Norgate Data
Long time readers know that I use Norgate Data for most of my backtesting. The data is clean, reliable and links easily with my backtesting software Amibroker. Norgate Data also carries a long list of fundamental data points. The data is not historical but it can be used to set up some very powerful stock screens. […]
Do Stocks Have A Floor?
Coronavirus and election concerns have really spooked the market lately with the S&P 500 down -6% on the week. There are more than a couple of reasons for this weakness. Cases of coronavirus are ramping up and there appears to be little cohesion or plan to tackle the escalating number of cases. The US election […]
What Trading Signals Work Best For Long-Term Investors?
Simple technical analysis is of limited use to long-term investors. Momentum can last for a long time but it doesn’t have much predictive ability on a five or ten year time horizon. Likewise, indicators like moving averages or RSI are best suited for shorter-term trading. With that said, you don’t know until you test. So in […]
Is The Biden Trade Priced In?
It’s not long to go until the US election and Joe Biden is leading the polls. The prominent 538 blog puts Biden’s chances at around 85%, The Economist has Biden at 90% and betting odds suggest a figure around 68%. As we move closer to the election, and with some votes already been cast, it does […]
How Do Stocks Perform After Stock Splits?
There has been a lot of discussion recently regarding the impact of stock splits. With two of the biggest names (Apple and Tesla) announcing splits you might be wondering about their significance. Especially since both stocks have already run up a huge amount since March. In theory, a stock split does nothing to change the […]
